CONFUSING SIGNALS.1. Why is Pakistan indulging in a proxy war?

Question

CONFUSING SIGNALS

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’ comment during his recent visit to Leh that Pakistan had lost the ability to *** a conventional war and was hence engaging in a proxy war by aiding and abetting terrorists does nothing to move the needle forward on improving India-Pakistan relations. The comment – made to Indian soldiers and officers – fails to take cognisance of the fact that the Nawaz Sharif government in Islamabad isn’t the sole or even main actor in determining Pakistan’ India policy.

It’ hardly a coincidence that hours after Modi’ comment Pakistani troops violated the ceasefire along the border. Again predictably, Islamabad’ foreign office responded to Modi’ charge by stating that Pakistan itself was a victim of terrorism and that New Delhi would do well not to engage in blame games. All of this takes away from the positive momentum that had been generated when Modi invited SAARC leaders to attend his swearing-in ceremony in May. That Sharif had made the trip to New Delhi had given rise to hopes that Modi is capable of thinking out of the box on Pakistan. But putting the screws on Islamabad ahead of the upcoming meeting of foreign secretaries will only strengthen hawks in the Pakistani establishment.

Moreover, the Sharif government is under siege with two separate protest marches to Islamabad – one led by opposition leader Imran Khan and the other by Canada-based religious scholar Tahir-ul Qadri – planned for today, Pakistan’ independence day. Both sets of protesters want Sharif to go and are rumoured to be supported by Pakistan’ military-intelligence complex. If the latter is true, it would mean that Pakistan’* security establishment is using the protests to send out a clear message to the civilian dispensation that it retains a veto on key issues.

Instead of doing the familiar talks-no talks routine with Pakistan, there is an unconventional path the Modi government can adopt to resolve the various irreconciliables it faces. If the Pakistan army is the main actor in determining India policy, a way must be found to engage the Pakistani armed forces themselves, whether through formal or informal channels, and to assuage their anxieties vis-a-vis India. UPA was hardly capable of this since it generally stuck to the tried and tested path. But Modi has shown a capacity to innovate and surprise, as in the case of his invitation to Sharif. More of such innovation will be needed for progress in India-Pakistan ties.

Answer briefly:

1. Why is Pakistan indulging in a proxy war?

2. What hope had Sharif’ trip to Delhi during Modi’ swearing-in-ceremony generated? Did it materialise?

3. How is the Pakistani security establishment using the protests against the Sharif’* government?

4. How can Modi deal with Pakistan in the new situation?

Answer 1

1. Pakistan has lost the ability to ***** a conventional war with India. Hence, it is engaging India in a proxy war by aiding and abetting terrorists.

2. Sharif’ trip to New Delhi to attend Modi’ swearing-in-ceremony generated a hope that the relations between India and Pakistan would improve in future. The continued ceasefire violations have belied all such expectations.

3. The Pakistani security establishment is using the recent protests led by Imran Khan and Qadri to strengthen its position. It wants to give a clear message to the government that it retains a veto on key issues.

4. Modi has already shown a capacity to innovate and surprise in such complex matters. He can adopt the right strategy to deal with Pakistan in the changed circumstances.